Behold: my big 3 local media predictions

2010 will be a year of insane change in the media world. If you're reading this in the greater Twin Cities area I'll venture out on a limb here and say that the once-venerable Star-Tribune will suffer more than it did in the previous year. There will be a few more layoffs but the big news will be the sale of their print operations. Yes, there will still be a printed newspaper but they will be able to save a few bucks by outsourcing their printing. Look for Media News Group/Pioneer Press, Gannett or - and this one is a longshot - Forum Communications to further consolidate and shuffle operations to absorb the printing of the Star-Tribune.

Even with the glut of changes I see ahead in 2010 this one will be the biggest. It will also mark the beginning of the rise of smaller operators with little to no debt load cautiously taking on larger ventures and finding success. They are used to operating with almost microscopic staffing and making relative miracles happen so this sort of change is a logical happening.

Being a bit of a media junkie, I also see a bunch of other changes including further gutting of Clear Channel radio stations (locally Kool 108, K102, KDWB, Cities 97, KTLK, KFAN and The Score 690) and maybe even an outright sale because, as things are now, they are on the brink of bankruptcy and are one of those companies who are too large to survive as opposed to banks who were billed as too large to fail. But if Clear Channel sells some, plenty or all of its radio stations who's buying? Radio does still work but it needs an immense rethinking to survive. Of course AM radio was written off a couple decades back but it survives today with sports and political talk so radio's future may not be so bleak after all. Their biggest problem is debt. Buyers need to remember they are buying some equipment, an antenna and a license - the revenue is not part of the package.

One last local media change is a certain bastard TV station being sold or vanishing all together. Really, how many people watch WUCW (CW-23)? Outside of a few thousand people watching their 2-hour primetime network offerings, the station's programming is garbage and based on their advertisers I fail to see how they can pay any sort of staff. I realize that any money is better than none but I think that there will be some sort of consolidation here. Shuttering the WB & UPN and rolling them together was the dumbest idea since New Coke because the sum of two zeroes is still zero which is a close approximation to how many viewers the CW has. Now the "network" isn't a complete loss - they occasionally beat "The Jay Leno Show" in the ratings so why wouldn't some other network see some value in a few of the shows the network broadcasts and offer to buy the network at a fire sale price (which I'm sure would work) and use the better programs to beef up their own schedule? Even less-than-stellar new scripted episodes are better than repeats and America is slowly catching on to the fact that nearly everything that could be done in the reality arena has been done.

If even one of these predictions comes true I'll be shocked - and scared. What do you see on the horizon? Is it the grim reaper or the angel of hope? Or is it finally success for MinnPics? Let's hope for the latter because I'd like that one.

Is it wrong to say that I am fearful?

In case you've been living under a fucking rock for the past year or so, all forms of media are tanking. There's no kind way that I could say this because it's reality. It's happening more and more frequently and I could list all of the victims of the recent media layoff but with KARE 11 tv laying people off and forcing all employees to take one week of unpaid time off, WCCO tv laying off employees, KSTP tv doing the same and the Star-Tribune filing for bankruptcy. Then there's Minneapolis/St. Paul magazine firing Brian Lambert and another Twin Cities veteran writer.

The sad thing is that this list is short. There have been far more cuts than these which have taken place in the past few weeks. It leaves the media landscape not a leaner operation but one that seems nearly gutted. Can a bare-bones staff fearful for their jobs at every turn be effective in producing and investigating news? Can their support staff, fearful of the same outcome, be effective in their jobs? Will this be the final downturn that leaves us with a media landscape that is a pure laughingstock? What will become of the media companies who cut too far? Is there even a place in the world of tomorrow for the evolving "traditional" media outlets?

Where does that leave these talented writers, producers, cameramen, reporters, personalities and the numerous behind-the-scenes employees of these media outlets? While the evolve-or-die mantra has certainly become true, has it happened too fast?

I hate to think what the media I rely on today will look like at the end of the year. Even more frightening is what the landscape will look like by Spring of 2010 (when I expect everything to begin recovering - slowly). Will I, as a media employee (no, I won't say where or specifically what I do), still have the same job duties or even a job by then? I am at least hopeful in that aspect because I like to think that I understand the buzzworthy trends that are rocking the media world. I've picked up the basic skills over the years that I need to make things work and thankfully I can grasp the new skills needed when they are unleashed.

So there it is in a nutshell. The media landscape - and the world - will not come out of this deep and painful, but necessary, recession (greed and stupidity fucked us all) anywhere near the same as they are now. This will either lead to the richest experience for entertainment and media we have ever witnessed or things will be bleak, bland and totally lacking the personality and skill that is growing and evolving and learning currently.

I am rooting for the former scenario. While you can currently listen to hundreds of hours of music from your iPod which goes everywhere and fits in your pocket, it's lacking the personality and warmth that we still crave and that was lost yesterday and is being lost nearly every day. Hopefully the suits running the world realize that entertainment of any form needs personality. It's what sets the traditional, but evolving, media apart from the "new" media.

Sadly, though, everything hinges on advertising and until those dollars come back into play, things will flat out suck but they will come back but in a wildly different format. A format that I can't wait to see or even be a part of creating.

2009 predictions - #1

I could spout off about a hundred predictions for the upcoming year but instead I'll slowly throw them in to the mix here from time to time. Maybe even before the year is up.

My first prediction has to do with the media landscape. Being from Minnesota and, more specifically the Twin Cities, my first peek in to my crystal ball has to do with the Minneapolis Star-Tribune.

If you're unfamiliar with this newspaper, they are the largest daily in Minnesota but have been missing debt payments and just announced that they are axing their B section for the month of January as an "experiment". My guess here is that while people will notice and, yes, even complain about the combination of the main news and metro sections but the investment group owners won't react outside of axing still more content in print.

This loss of content translates to a loss of pages and, in turn, leaves behind less value and less of a reason for the increasingly financially pinched average Joe to throw down 50 cents for a smaller paper.

Thus begins the slippery slope leading to a Minneapolis Star-Tribune that nobody will recognize or one that won't even exist.

What little money I have is on the Minneapolis Star-Tribune becoming web-only with a bare bones staff of full-time employees who will write and edit the content, shoot and edit video content and shoot their own photos. A small, free Sunday-only printed piece will still exist on racks as a vehicle for delivering those stacks of printed inserts because that is all that's left that still makes money. While this would leave behind the paper's hundreds of thousands of subscribers, the investment company currently running the newspaper doesn't care because if it lines their pockets, it's good business.

Another scenario leaves the Minneapolis Star-Tribune to be swallowed up by the neighboring St. Paul Pioneer Press. Five years ago I would have punched myself for thinking something so ludicrious could ever happen. Maybe now, though, it's time for this to happen as it would leave the stronger weekly papers whose business models are more nimble to succeed and grab more advertising dollars and actually add subscribers - something the trudging behemoths have almost certainly failed at.

Less doom and gloom exists at the safe-haven known as MinnPics. Check out the stunning photography from Minnesota's finest Flickr-using photographers.

A victory speech of sorts

Tonight at 7 PM, the doors of the Xcel Energy Center in downtown St. Paul, Minnesota open for what many are expecting to be a victory speech of sorts by Democratic presidential candidate Barack Obama.

I am one of a few who feels that Obama will not go as far to brag about an outright victory in the primary and caucus circuit of 2008 but his speech once he takes the stage at The X will be one to pump up his supporters and bring Hillary supporters into the fold. I feel that Obama is above the bragging and boasting that I'm sure has been the downfall of some politicians but I'm not above predictions and crystal ball gazing.

Hillary will suspend her campaigning by the end of the week and become one of the people on Barack's short list of running mates; likely at the top. He would be doing exactly what he has promised by surrounding himself with experience and knowledge to make up for what some feel as a lack of experience from the presidential hopeful.

I do like the choice of venue for what is essentially Obama's semi-finals victory. Expect plenty of painfully minute analysis over the next few days by talking heads, heads that talk and people who have no business being in front of a camera and will refer to Obama as "that there black boy".